A lot of arrogance to automatically assume any other country is in a worse position without any information. What if the person was posting from China on a VPN? How would the statement remain true then?
> China specifically is also in a worse position than the US in this trade war
Bond market says what now?
China has spent every day since 2016 preparing for this war. We, who launched it, didn't even bother to stockpile. While it's true the Chinese economy will likely suffer more short-term pain, Xi doesn't have midterms. Beyond his tools as a dictator, he has narrative on his side: we started the trade war. People are generally willing to take a lot of pain when they feel they're being fucked with. (Exhibit A: Trump.)
So yes, China's economy will probably contract more than America's. But there is a reason Trump is already blinking.
Sorry JumpCrissCross. I know you're a smart dude, but I don't think the bond market has an undisputed reputation for predicting the outcomes of a sub-warfare, nation v nation conflict.
China can't even feed itself. They couldn't open the Red Sea. Their non-US trading partners are not wealthy. They have a lot to lose (hence the decade long prep).
You are very correct about the population dynamics though. China is united, the US has very smart people like yourself in extreme opposition to the trade war.
