Apologies for replying to myself, I am fumbling in my ignorance here, and genuinely curious if anyone could share any other valuable/interesting things from this "movement." In all other cases of people calling themselves "rationalists," it has been a huge yellow flag for me, as a fallibilist. :~]
I guess Dwarkesh Patel is part of that community? Well, his interviews are quite interesting, at least in the sense of seeing into a world that I otherwise don't see regarding AI researchers, and his questions are often quite good. Also, after interviewing many leading researchers and being on the hype train, he eventually did say a few months ago ~"yeah, the 'fast take-off' is not upon us," after trying to use leading tools to make his own podcast. That's intellectual honesty that is greatly missing in this world. So, there is that? I am also a huge fan of his Sara Paine pieces, at least on her part.
Is there anything else intellectually honest and interesting coming out of that group?
I use agentic LLM dev tools to work on two apps, around 14 hours per day, very happily. As a long out of practice dev who still has product ideas, these tools have created huge opportunities for me. I am also having the most fun of my professional life.
However, I would trade all of that to make "AI" go away in a heart beat. It's just impossible for me to believe that that this will not be a tragedy for society at large. I cannot imagine even a single realistic world-scale scenario in which the outcome will be positive.
> In reality, even an ASI won’t know your intent unless you communicate it clearly and unambiguously.
I recently came to this realization as well, and it now seems so obvious. I feel dumb for not realizing it sooner. Is there any good writing or podcast on this topic?
I hear you, but that entire thread is really interesting reading.
I am very heavily product-pilled, and I feel the crazy vibe. Two days ago my co-founder mentioned a more focused product idea, and a much more clear distribution pipeline. I created the frontend MVP using our old backend in a few hours.
I then tried to sleep. I woke up after 2 to 3hrs mid-nightmare: I was chasing some active electronic device with a long cable tail across the floor. When I tried to grab the cable/tail, it started to bleed.
DID NOT GO BACK TO SLEEP.
Instead, discovered and refactored to Kontsa UI, then took a 3 hour nap, then woke up for the daily to learn that based off all that, we appear to have secured runway for the next year.
Dreams aside, life is great, but this is a crazy time. I have never seen the world move more quickly, and I ain't young.
Don't worry, there is a plan. CNN will be in new hands by that point. Reddit's r/all will be, or already is gone from the app's defaults, and much more to come!
The doctors offices want none of it. It's all FoodTV and HGN.
There is no utility in pissing off 75% of your customers. I'm thrilled that my kid's doctor doesn't even allow patients that aren't vaccine schedule compliant.
Being medically stupid isn't a protected class. You can refuse service to anyone you want to otherwise. It's not an ER, it's a Pediatrician, and they value not endangering their other patients who actually follow medical advice.
No one said people aren't dumb with their money, but seriously look at some of the numbers that prime time CNN pulls. Twitch streamers have a large audience than prime time shows. There is a reason why cable has been dying and cable news has already dead.
I know this is reductionist, and I believe that you are likely correct in your concerns, but this type of thing has been happening for thousands of years. Writing itself was controversial!
> They go on to discuss what is good or bad in writing. Socrates tells a brief legend, critically commenting on the gift of writing from the Egyptian god Theuth to King Thamus, who was to disperse Theuth's gifts to the people of Egypt. After Theuth remarks on his discovery of writing as a remedy for the memory, Thamus responds that its true effects are likely to be the opposite; it is a remedy for reminding, not remembering, he says, with the appearance but not the reality of wisdom. Future generations will hear much without being properly taught, and will appear wise but not be so, making them difficult to get along with.
I've thought the same multiple times over the last few years. I can't remember all the events, but it was at least four separate times, most notably with January 6th. Every time it went like this:
1. Users on /r/conservative (& other conservative forums) show a surprisingly negative reaction to something done by the GOP
2. Over the next few days, their media starts repeating individual social media responses that seem to find agreement. They don't have to make sense, they just have to terminate the thought.
3. In the communities more and more voices spread those same responses while shouting down reasonable commenters from 1., declaring them "non-MAGA" or "RINOs"
4. After a few days/weeks, all opposing voices have been drowned out, and their moderation teams delete any posts that could sway their opinion/goes against the current.
- Misfolding & Conversion: A normal, functional prion protein (PrP C) changes shape into a misfolded, pathogenic form (PrP Sc), which acts as a template to convert more PrP C into PrP Sc.
- Self-Propagation: The core of prion dynamics is this autocatalytic cycle, where PrP Sc recruits and converts normal PrP C, leading to exponential growth.
Aggregation: These misfolded proteins clump together, forming large aggregates (amyloid) that deposit in the brain, causing neurodegeneration.
- Fragmentation: For propagation to continue, large aggregates must break down (fragment) into smaller pieces (seeds) that can initiate new conversion cycles, a process crucial for disease progression and influenced by chaperones like Hsp104 in yeast.
The group you are describing would indeed need to remove the misfolded protein for survival.
In terms of hope:
".... For propagation to continue, large aggregates must break down (fragment) into smaller pieces (seeds) that can initiate new conversion cycles"
In other words, the Republican party could be looking at serious fracturing into many many post-mango camps, ala Margerie Taylor Green leaving the MAGA camp. These dynamics are probably exactly how the conservatives got co-opted by the MAGA strain.
If you think about it, if you count 2015 campaign, Trump has been campaigning or in office for 10 years, with 3 more to go. That’s thirteen. fucking. years.
No man is that interesting. This person’s “opinion” on the world has just been utterly exhausting.
From way out here, it really appears like maybe the formula is:
Effective Altruism = guilt * (contrarianism ^ online)
I have only been paying slight attention, but is there anything redeemable going on over there? Genuine question.
You mentioned "rationalist" - can anyone clue me in to any of this?
edit: oh, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationalist_community. Wow, my formula intuition seems almost dead on?
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